Prediction markets: product, economics, and opportunities for new startups
April 6, 2026
Prediction markets: product, economics, and opportunities for new startups
This hub links chapters to the series on Teletype @julia_innovator.
Chapter 1. How prediction markets work
Read more: Teletype — Chapter 1. Political casino or new Bloomberg?
Chapter 2. Platform economics and business models
On Teletype, chapter 2 of the series is the historical arc (from papal conclave to Polymarket/Kalshi). For revenue, fees, and “$0 revenue” at scale, see also Chapter 8 on Teletype.
History of the industry (Teletype, chapter 2): From papal conclave to $30B
Chapter 3. Three architectures
Read more: Teletype — Chapter 3. Three market models
Chapter 4. Who actually trades
Read more: Teletype — Chapter 4. 75% speculators. Who are the other 25%?
Chapter 5. Manipulation, insider activity, edge cases
Read more: Teletype — Chapter 7. Insider trading, wash trading, oracle bugs
Chapter 6. Why most participants lose money
Read more: Teletype — Chapter 6. Who really earns
Chapter 7. New products built on top of prediction markets
Read more: Teletype — Chapter 11. 50 ideas — and three worth attention
These notes summarize my research as a product perspective on how these markets grew, what growth mechanics they used, and where new product opportunities may still appear.